GRIPS 政策研究センター Policy Research Center


Jul 13, 2012 Report No:12-06

Estimating the Effects of Pronatal Policies on Residential Choice and Fertility

  • Ryo NakajimaDepartment of Economics, Yokohama National University
  • Ryuichi TanakaGRIPS
Field Economics
Language English

In this paper, we estimate the impacts of local-government-sponsored pronatal policies on fertility by exploiting information on the geographical variation in policies across municipalities in Japan. We develop an empirical model that accommodates both the location and fertility choices of households to take into account their self-selected migration across municipalities.
We estimate the structural parameters using cross-sectional microdata on Japanese households in metropolitan areas. The results suggest that self-selection may generate substantial upward bias in the estimated impacts of pronatal policies on fertility. We also find that, after controlling for self selection bias, some types of noncash benefit pronatal policies significantly increase the probability of births occurring in metropolitan households, although the magnitudes differ significantly by revenue and birth parity.

Keywords Fertility, family policies, residential location choice, selection
attachment 12-06.pdf