GRIPS 政策研究センター Policy Research Center

客員研究員

2009/5/1 Report No:09-06

A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN’S POPULATION

著者
  • 大来 洋一政策研究大学院大学
  • Wade Pfau政策研究大学院大学
  • Giang Thanh LongNational Economics University
分野 経済学
言語 英語
要旨

Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.

添付ファイル 09-06.pdf